Is Poker about SKILL or LUCK (tournaments)

Recently I saw a poker media company claiming to be an educational resource interview a bunch of people asking this question. Are poker tournaments about skill or luck? To my disappointment everyone answered LUCK. Yes indeed you have win your flips, key pots have to hold, and sometimes the occasional suck out will help you go deeper, but if you're like the people in the video that think that luck is more important, then maybe you're not doing the following things.

1. Playing the right ranges

Without someone telling you it's wrong, you might think you're playing the right ranges all along. "When Ï was short, I was waiting for a good hand and folded shit like A8s, KQo so when I finally got AA I had only 3bb left so I shove and bb called with me J9 and won. Hash tag run bad." Take 10 minutes to read some charts and you might be surprised what you should and shouldn't be playing. 

2. Defend your big blind well

You can play snug and choose your battles, but once every orbit you have to defend your big blind. Understanding which boards favor which player, which lines, defending what range vs the perceived range of the opener, these things will highly increase your odds of going deep. 

3. Bluff more

One of the most common complaints I hear in an MTT is "I don't have any good hands", "card dead"... Well if you are waiting for premium hands, hoping to be on the right side of coolers, then yes you will be sorely disappointed most of the time. Since most of the time stacks are relatively shorter than say a cash game, we are "scared" to bluff as a bad bluff might cost us. But we forget that "fear" or the same concerns are with your opponents too, as a bad call will cost them just the same. Fold equity is much higher in MTTs compared to a cash game. If you're not 3 bet bluffing, 4 bet bluffing, over bet bluffing, then you are not doing enough. 

4. Ready to catch bluffs

You will be put in many tough spots in the course of a tournament. If you a able to read ranges well, sense the type of player you're playing against, have a proper bankroll to make decisions more comfortably, then you're prepared to call off sometimes your tournament life with marginal hands. The biggest mistake I've seen players do is bluff catch on the turn but change their minds on the river. I am not saying once you call the turn bet you have to call the river bet as well, but if nothing major changes, what made your mind change? If you're not prepared to call off then why call on the turn too? 

For me to win this back then I definitely had some luck

5. Hero fold 

I know this sounds contradictory to the point above but it's spots like ability to fold jacks to a small blind cold 4 bet, 3 bet folding AK deep stacks to utg opener, folding AA on a 789 cold 3 bet multiway, folding QT on a QJTxx preflop aggressor triple barrel, etc. Poker is about relativity. In some spots you can call with king high but fold 3rd nuts in another. Knowing the difference is key. 

6. Thin value

If you are avoiding thin value because you fear getting raised off your hand, or you're thinking villain can't call you anyways, you might be missing out on precious blinds that might be the difference between surviving your future hands or player out. A few blinds here and there will compound in future pots, giving you more room to maneuver later stages, able to take a cooler or bad beat and still have chips to continue.  

7. Paying enough attention

I can grind cash games for 12-15 hours straight and not feel tired, but I am exhausted after a day of tournament poker because there is so much attention and focus needed. Paying attention to things like player conversations (for example, someone saying that this is their last bullet) or the clock (stone bubble, MP has 6bbs now but if you time it right, he will have only 3bb left when he's on the big blind) or if someone is tilting, tired, scared, over confident, under bluffing, over bluffing.... You are not playing your hand, you are playing against the players on your table. 

There are many more things but these are just the top few. If you really think poker is about luck then you're better off playing blackjack or baccarat. If you're already doing the above and still losing then you have earned the right to blame it on luck. Come play online on Natural8 with me or join our Malaysia Poker Federation discord here. 

CPG Sanya, Hainan China Report

When I embarked on my journey to play poker in as many countries as possible, I kept wondering when would I have the chance to play in China. When I heard there was going to be a CPG stop in Hainan I was intrigued. The last time I visited Hainan was in 2016, rented a scooter, had some yummy seafood and a great time. I was reluctant at first because August had been a mediocre month for me, and I really needed to grind some cash games if I wanted a productive month. But then I found a nice connection in Changsha and also needed to attend for business purposes so I went.

Why are dragon trophies the norm nowadays?

Sanya has changed a lot since I last visited 8 years ago. It is now a full blown tourist town. Food is nice if you know where to find it. I recommend the First Market for some very nice seafood at pretty good prices. I remember it wasn't as hot in June but this time in August it was scorching. Even at night you would sweat in the dark. So it wasn't as nice to explore during the day. We didn't even go to the beach or took a swim. 

Such a nice pool but never got to use it

China Poker Games (CPG) position themselves as a sports event organizer, and their tournaments are open for registration for sportsmen/women from all over. Therefore in order to participate you need to first download their app, create a membership account with real details, ID numbers, preregister and prepay for your planned events. Therefore you don't have the luxury of deciding on the day what to play, or walking to the counter to register. Transferring of prepaid tickets are allowed the first time, but the process is complex. Given the strict laws in China, it is understandable that they need these for the protection of the event and the players. 

I played in the main event only and it was quite fun. I can say that CPG does not skimp on quality. Everything is top notch. From the chips, to cards, to even the day 2 bags, they are all super high quality. The membership app, seating app, every table has two CCTVs, you can see the high cost of running their events. Then again, they do have a high rake and tax associated with them, although I am unsure how much it actually is. Pay outs are not immediate and will take some time to process, but it didn't affect me as I busted day 2 on the soft bubble. Prices of the tickets fluctuate if you don't prepay early enough and as I understand it, most local players earn them by playing online. 

Navigating my tight bankroll

Overall I had a nice time. Sanya is quite picturesque and the food is good. However I enjoyed my little stopover in Changsha more in spite of the scorching heat. (it was like 39-40 degrees) I do not recommend CPG for non-Chinese speaking players though. You would have a tough time if you didn't speak the language. They do have translators and staff that can help you, but you would find it less enjoyable. Going out, taking taxis, ordering food, you will have a rough time. For those who do go, you would need WeChat pay or AliPay. Without it life will be tough. 

Coconut chicken (so-so)

Goat hot pot (nice but expensive)

Seafood (cheap and good)

If you're like me, good food can solve anything, then I would say give CPG Sanya a go. I just wish the August weather was a bit cooler. But if you are considering it purely for poker, be prepared for a very different experience than most other series in Asia. If you're willing to have an open mind, try new things then the experience itself is worth it. 

My Limsanity Moment? Poker Dream 11, Genting Malaysia Report

I’m a big Jeremy Lin fan. Been following his career when he first burst into the scene down to his G-league years and later in China and Taiwan. Both him and I are pretty vocal Christians. I respect the ways he handles adversity, criticism, haters, challengers, and how he lets his faith guide him in not just being a basketball player but also as a human being. He is quick to stand up for the right things, but never condemning or out to hurt anybody. He is also generous in giving and helping others. He’s an inspiration for me to do the same, just in the poker industry. 

I’m writing this article at 1:31am on the 1st of August 2024. Poker Dream 11 starts later today and I have a feeling my time, my "Limsanity" moment is near. (Yes Jeremy and I have the same last name just spelled slightly differently) I wanted to write this before it happened instead of after to show you if I predicted it or not.

My life can be made into a very interesting and entertaining movie or Netflix series. From me battling gambling addiction since I was 15,  getting involved in some shady stuff, bouncing around in my poker career including living and playing in Vietnam and Cambodia, dealing with lots of personal issues, getting scammed, bullied and locked up… to changing my life completely, vowed to be honest, humble, kind, giving, loyal, caring, a selfless person, quit all forms of gambling, to make myself a person deserving of great things in life, all the while giving credit to God and counting His blessings. It has not been an easy journey as change does not come overnight, and till this day I’m still being tested, and sometimes I still fail, but every time I’ve come back a stronger, a better version of the person I was. But the blessings are there. I have the most amazing partner in life that brings me so much joy and comfort. I truly believe I’m one of the happiest people on earth. Recently I’ve done okay for myself financially too. I know this is just the start, and I want to inspire other people that you can be successful by being good, kind, some would even say soft and weak even dumb, often bullied, scolded, lied to, taken advantage of, face injustice, unfairness, judgement, but as long as you stay true to yourself and be the best you can be, be more concerned about making God happy than people, great things will happen for you.

Coming off a downswing in my cash game life, I’ve learn so much to continue to grow as a poker player. Since my last post on my losing run, I’ve won 1/10 small stakes sessions, 7/10 mid stakes (but only for a small profit) but thankfully 4/5 high stakes games. But I could have been at least 2000bb richer in the high stakes if I had left at the peak of those sessions, instead of losing TT vs 96, QQ vs 33 all in pre flop mind you for ridiculous size pots. So my point is, I shouldn’t be feeling super confident at the moment. But somehow, I am. All these years of hiding in mediocrity at least in tournaments, I feel my breakthrough is just around the corner. I’ll stop writing here and if my feelings were right, I’ll share with you what happened below. 

I prayed for a trophy, but wasn't specific enough!

Now it's the 13th of August. Poker Dream 11 is over, well, things were a little insane for a while. From my experience, God has a great sense of humor. I prayed for a trophy but next time I will be more specific! 😂I did win a trophy and had a pretty cool moment on stage, but, it was an invitational event, even though there were some money up top. I felt bad for some of my table mates that finished 3rd and 4th (long story) so I gave them 10% each of my prize, including the 2nd place finisher. I was in the top 4 of the Big Mystery Bounty event and chopped the prize 4 ways. After the ICM chop the immediate next hand I lost a 3 way all in pot with AA vs JT vs Q2. Was close to winning a proper trophy but it was not to be. Had a third final table in the Big-O event but bricked all my later events. I could feel my mental stamina was not as it used to be and made some pretty bad mistakes later in the series. I ended the series with a modest profit, and congratulations to my friends who did exceptionally well this series. To those who didn't, gambate and keep grinding!

Real people are hard to find

Maybe my time is not here yet and my biggest takeaway was to be humble and keep working hard. This trip there were other positives such as meeting potential future business partners, stakers, students, life long friends. The most touching moment was how my core MPF boys stood by me, and to see how the community we have built have grown. Our community was built with time, care, sacrifice, and not benefits, marketing or giveaways. So what I got in return was friendship, respect, loyalty. Thanks guys, you know who you are. I have come to another crossroad in my career, and I have some interesting plans ahead. Stick around to follow me on my journey! 

I don't want a lucky break, I want deserved success

How did Jonathan Tamayo win the WSOP Main Event 2024

Jonathan Tamayo is the latest winner of the WSOP Main Event. But he is probably going to be remembered more as the guy that folded QQ to a single open when it was 10 handed. A move even his coach said in an interview was a mistake. Later in the final table he also made some questionable snap folds like AJdd and AQ both to single opens. I've read so many comments on how poorly he played, how bad a player he is, etc. But how did someone that seemingly played so tight/poor/bad eventually win the whole thing?

Imagine yourself, sitting there with 9 other people, having a shot at winning $10 million dollars. If there's a time you should play to win, this would be it wouldn't it? I do not know Tamayo's financial status, but you are also one person away from winning an additional $200k, which in most main events is the winner's purse, and one person away from WSOP Main Event FT history (nobody remembers the FT bubble boy, except maybe Phil Ivey) You scan the table and you are mid-stacked at a pretty vulnerable 19bbs, with two guys shorter at 11bb and 5bb respectively. UTG opens, you look down at QQ with so many players left to act behind you, including the two shorties. What's the best case scenario? You 3b and take down 4.5bb. What could go wrong? You get 4b, or called by a big stack. Or, within the next two orbits the 5bb is going to have to take a stand otherwise he will be eliminated. Game Theory Optimal would never fold QQ here, no matter the ICM situation. But GTO is designed to be emotionless. It does not care about money, fame or survival. It only cares about playing the hand correctly in a bubble, independent of the previous or next hands. 

I call Tamayo's style of play, defensive poker. GTO is about aggression. Guns blazing, all out attack. You can't say Tamayo was playing meekly because later he took some spots like 3 betting with K5o to a late position open, opening 93o in the small blind on bvb, etc. Instead of all out attack, he played defensively, only sneaking in an attack or two here and there when the spot opened up for him. When we look at the hands individually we can critique all we want because as hands, they were probably not played optimally. But considering the spot, where you factor in the payjumps, shorties, opener styles and positions, he took the lower variance route and picked the spots where he felt he had a better chance. Some players can play certain hands creatively, I say Tamayo made some creative folds. In his mind he could see how these hands although as good as they are could get him in trouble. He quickly folded AJdd to a single open, yet called with 77 and even later streets. With AJ you are often dominated, and are only ahead of Kx Qx type hands. If there's a Jack or Ace on the flop you are never comfortable. Whereas 77 is ahead of all Ax, Kx, Qx and if you flop a 7 you are extremely comfortable. 

When someone plays a hand differently than us, for me it is an opportunity to learn. Why did he play it that way? Why is it different from how I would have played it? What was going through his mind? Poker is ever evolving, and things we are doing not so long ago would have been considered crazy, stupid, fishy. Also, it's easy to backseat drive when you are comfortably sitting at home, as a spectator. But the guy that's playing is feeling all the emotions of the camera, lights, fame, fortune, a chance of a lifetime. Furthermore, you can't win a tournament in one hand (unless it's down to heads up), you can't aim to be winning every hand, playing to survive sometimes trumps everything else, especially when the payjumps are unlike any other tournaments in the world. 

I'm not saying that I would play exactly like Tamayo, but I can respect the moves (including the folds) that he made. In a bubble they may have been mistakes, but given the context, it may have been genius. Phil Ivey once famously mucked the winning hand at showdown in the 2009 Main Event. He later went on to be in the final table. When he was interviewed if he regretted mucking that hand he replied no. It got him as deep as it got him, so it was the right move. I'm a believer in butterfly effects as well, short term gains may not lead to the best outcome in the long run. In an age of GTO and solvers, we may be quick to comment, to critique, but thankfully we are human after all. There are adjustments, emotions, risk v reward, table dynamics, fear v greed, all these human elements to make this game fun, unpredictable and entertaining to watch. Congrats to Mr Tamayo and his team for the win!

Why I created the Malaysia Poker Federation (MPF)

Since our official launch a few months ago, I often get asked this question. Why did you do this? What do you get out of it? To be honest, some days I ask myself the same question. Some days I even regretted doing it in the first place. But below are the answers I use to comfort myself and maybe it will help you to appreciate it too.

1. COMMUNITY

I started playing poker in 1999. I first found a group of poker players from a Facebook group, later an online forum, then also on a meet up website. I traveled all over to play poker but all the time by myself. My early close poker friends were actually from Hong Kong instead of Malaysia. I wanted to create a community where fellow poker lovers can meet and make friends with each other, have a sense of camaraderie, brotherhood and friendship. To create a sense of belonging and patriotism cause as small as a poker nation we are, we are surprisingly influential in the industry with Malaysian footprints in so many poker related businesses. 

I envy the closeness of the Taiwanese players

2. GROWTH

I wish when I was coming up that I had people to discuss hands with, ask questions, etc that would have accelerated my growth and saved myself a lot of unnecessary mistakes and pain. I credit a lot of my improvement to a Singaporean player that I used to grind private games with. He probably unknowingly helped my game a lot. Poker has given me so many things, I think it's time for me to give back to the community as well. 

Chinese idiom: Don't be ashamed to ask questions

3. INDUSTRY

Although we may never gain legality in Malaysia, but with a proper legal poker room, poker tournaments, and now even poker movies, I envision there will be more and more Malaysian players. Since when do people play poker during Chinese New Year? It has traditionally been Thai Baccarat or Ngau. But the game is spreading, the game is slowly losing it's tabooness, and it's always great to have a proper federation for new players to feel comfortable stepping into something new. 

4. BENEFITS

My wish is as a collective group, is that we will have the bargaining power for some benefits for members, such as discounts for poker products, free gifts, sponsorships etc. We've offered free classes online and members have gone on to be friends that help each others' games improve. Our first major benefit for members is coming up in the form of two Poker Dream Malaysia Open tickets on lucky draw. Click HERE to find out how to join. This is just the start and I hope there will be more. We need your support and help to get there!

How can you help?

1. Become a member (free to join, free membership for life)

A federation is only as strong as it's members. Officially we have 217 members, but I am sure we can do a lot better than that. It only takes you 2 minutes of your time to fill out the form, but more members mean we can get offers from poker companies, bringing more value and benefits to members. 

Scan and fill

2. Join our Facebook Page, and our Discord

I know Malaysians don't use Discord very often, and I am one of them. But after trying it out I can say it is a very smart platform that serves our very purposes. We have live streaming of classes, watch parties, playing grinding online tournaments live, etc. We discuss hands, strategy, but also sometimes just chit chat, blowing steam, getting that bad beat off our chests. Come and be part of this community, in both English and Chinese. 

WSOP 24 Main Event live watch party

3. Donate

So far I've spent about RM 8k for MPF expenditure, but don't worry, I am not asking for monetary donations. You can donate your time, offer your skills, volunteer, etc. We often need skilled people like graphic designers, marketing people, Facebook moderators, content creators, Discord pot stirrers, photo posters..... Things that don't require too much of your time, but collectively can be a great impact for the group. 

Finally special thanks to those helped make this happen, our community members, volunteers, (who are also doing this for nothing in return) and finally our members for making it a real community, and hopefully a big happy family. 

How to deal with a downswing (my personal experience)

Since April till now mid-June, I have played 19 sessions of poker (had a month-long hiatus in between) and won only 8 of them. I lost a few sessions that were 800bb+ but the stakes were pretty wide. From $1/$1 up to $20/$40 and in between. Honestly I have not had such an experience in my career until now, so I want to share with you my experience. 

At first it started off with frustration. Why can't I win like I used to? Why does it suddenly seem so much harder than it was before? Admittedly that led to some poor plays and compounded my annoyance and made me lose more than I had to. 

Things started to go bad after this very day

So the first lesson was ENTITLEMENT. As a decent player, playing against players we perceive to be better than, we somehow feel we are entitled to win. This is one of the biggest tilt factors for most players. I flopped the nuts, I should win this pot. So when the run out gets bad, we still call off knowing that we might not have the best hand anymore, because hey, we flopped the nuts. I played that hand perfectly, trapped him with such beauty and finesse, but the donkey got lucky and spiked his two outer.

So what? If you are not prepared to lose, you are not prepared to win. (if no one said it before, then this is my quote) Getting bad beats or coolered is part of life. It awes me when some poker pros or veteran regs throw tantrums after a beat. If you can't take it on the chin like a champ, maybe you shouldn't be in the ring. 

After successfully stringing together a few more losses, I entered the reflection stage. Is this really a downswing because of LUCK, or BAD PLAY? You have to be honest with yourself, and be HUMBLE and soul search. It helps if you have a good friend (that is good enough to tell you the ugly truth, rather than a white lie) that was on the same tables with you to help you another perspective, or have someone good to analyse some hands that you played. And this time, I found my first few losses were from a combination of tilt and running bad. Hence I took a break from poker to clear my head and get refocused. You need to ask yourself is this really a downswing or I just ran out of luck. 

What should I do Mona? 

After my break I started playing poker again and managed to look at the things that was causing me tilt in a different light. I was back to being positive and focused. However things didn't go well. This time, the real downswing is here, losing 5 out of 6 sessions since returning. I don't want to bore you with the bad beat or cooler stories. I did win some nice pots in between but lost most of my key pots, the kind of pots that really define your session. So at this stage I am feeling sad. A couple of posts ago I said I was feeling depressed, now I really am. 

However, knowing if I start to feel sorry for myself, it will spiral downwards and potentially cause me to play poorly or play tilted that I will end up losing more. So what I've learned is to look at the POSITIVE side of things. Let's put it into perspective. Only 5 months ago I was so happy to be up X amount, then I continued to build that over the next few months to X+++. Then in my downswing, I am now up just X++. For example, you're so happy to be up 3000. Then you ran it up further to 14000. But now you've dropped to 11000. I thought to myself, why was I so happy to be up 3000 and now sad to be up 11000? Just because I hit 14000 at one point? That doesn't make sense. I am 8000 better off than I was 5 months ago, but instead I am sadder than I was. If so, that is really messed up! As recent as a few days ago, I changed my mindset and started to think positively. The results haven't turned yet but I am enjoying my poker more than I was, and not easily affected by the results, nor am I pushing spots to try to eke out a win. So I guess the last lesson is, DON'T FORCE IT. If it is variance, like a storm, wait it out. 

This was also a big turning point session

I will keep you guys updated about my run, but I think in these few weeks I have grown again as a poker player. The emotions I went through, and how by using logical steps to overcome at least the psychological aspects of a downswing, I feel like I have done all I can to minimize the damage, and hopefully be ready to reap the rewards when the variance evens out. 

POKER GUIDE TO: Poker in Riga, Latvia

Our itinerary was 2 weeks in Italy then a hop over to the Baltic countries before ending our trip back in Milan. So for the first two weeks we were shoulder to shoulder with the sea of tourists in Milan, Rome, Florence (Genoa was more tolerable) hence when we landed in Riga, the first experience we had was of relief. As beautiful as Riga is, there isn't an obvious tourist in sight. Wide open spaces, beautiful parks and attractions where you can run around, breathe and not be surrounded by foreigners weaving around trying to snap their photos. Here you can actually sit and stare at the beauty and really take it in. 

You must always go on night walks in Europe

The old town is obviously the main attraction and the city park was gorgeous. But even when we took the time to venture out a little, other parks were also thoughtfully designed for a very laid back, relaxed lifestyle. I did a bit of research on the cost of living and income levels only to find out on average a doctor makes about €2700 a month in Latvia compared to €6000 in Tallinn (4 hours away by bus) or €14000 in Helsinki (6 hours away by bus and ferry). So when I found a decent €5/€5 and €5/€10 game at the casino I was quite surprised. You can comfortably grind €5/€5 here and live better than a doctor's salary. Although I just played on two nights, once on Saturday, which was pumping but the Sunday game was "meh". 

One W one L for a small profit in Riga

Games are held at the Olympic Voodoo Casino, behind the Radisson Blu hotel. You can go to https://lv.olympic-poker.com/galvena for information and register for the waitlist. Entry is free, no obvious dress code, rake is 5% capped at 3bb, free water but other drinks are not. Dealers and most players speak fluent English and are reasonably friendly. As far as I know the casino doesn't have a closing time like some European casinos and the tables can run until pretty late. 

Inside the Central Market

Just another cafe

During the day we got to explore the city. I quite enjoyed the central market, known to be the biggest market in Europe with produce from all over the world other than their own it seems but still at very reasonable prices. There is also a flower market that is just beautiful. The local cuisine to me wasn't too exciting but I tried a couple of local beers that were really tasty. English is well spoken throughout and most locals are quite nice although I did get scammed by a taxi driver. But if you use their taxi app you'll be fine. I also like to travel around on a scooter, especially late at night when the streets are clear. 

Colors in nature

Riga is easily accessible. Our taxi in Rome to the airport (€31) cost more than our flight ticket from Rome to Riga (before luggage add ons and taxes), and was 5x the price of our bus from Riga to Tallinn. From what I've heard, the poker scene isn't as it used to be pre-Covid, but I would still recommend it for a 2-3 day stopover. I hope I will get to visit again and this time I want to rent a car to explore the surrounding small towns and rich nature that is in Latvia.