Just finished playing a long session, second to last hand, I was on the button with
5 players limped to me so I just limped the button. Sb raises to $30 (we were playing $5/$5) 4 players called and I called too. Flop came:
Sb initial raiser bets 95 into a pot of 180. Bb calls, guy in late position calls. So I put the two callers on draws, possibly flush draw or at least straight draws. The pot is now 465 and I reraised to 430. Initial raiser tanked, asked me if I had a set of 3s, mumbled to himself if I have J8, J9 of hearts etc. Then goes all in for 1020 more. I thought for about 3 minutes and then folded.
My reasoning:
1. BB and another guy called, so villain should be able to put them on draws. That makes my hand more unlikely a draw. So my reraise means strength, and my sizing indicates super strength. So if he can shove there he must be good.
2. He asked me if I had set of 3s. Why not ask me if I had set of 8s? He might have set of 8s, Js there.
3. Preflop he raised $30. 8s seem more likely than overpair or Jacks. I doubt he had a draw there and I managed to get all draws to fold.
4. If I had over pair in his spot I would either fold them (since I only committed $30+$95) or just flat the $430 if I think I am against a draw. If turn is a brick, I can call another bet or shove or I can donk shove.
5. I can't be on a draw. Even if I had a monster flush draw, I want a multi way pot. Especially if I can put the other two callers on draws. Because 1. They might have my outs and 2. If we all hit the draw together I will get paid. So therefore I thought a good player would put me on a made strong hand instead of a draw.
I tanked and then folded my J3 face up. He flipped over Queens. I over analysed. I would fold queens there if I were in his spot. If he raised $95 and no one called and then I reraised, then it would be a different story. His shove with over pair would make sense. But having two callers and a reraise, the reraise is highly unlikely to be a draw. It should be an easy fold for the queens or peel the turn to see a blank before committing all the chips if you think you're against a draw.
Anyhow, it would have been a 1.8k profit pot if I had called. But sigh..... I am not upset with my fold. I am just upset that I over estimated the guys poker analysis.
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