Should I Quit Poker?

Ever since April 2024, I feel like I am on this never ending downswing. I have played in about 23 tournament series since then and have made a profit in only 4 of them. My last 50 cash games sessions I have only won like 15 of them, losing the last 3 back to back in pretty rough fashion. 

She doesn't mind if I "retire" from poker

The straw that broke the camel's back, is an idiom describing a series of negative events slowly adding to a point the tiniest weight of a straw eventually broke the camel's back. Today I may have experienced the last straw. Even though today's loss is only 1/14th of my biggest losing session of my career, the way I lost just broke my spirit, sucked all the passion I had remaining after a series of devastating blows, coolers, suck outs, frustration calls.... I have not been this dejected in a long time. Right at the casino I decided to walk away from poker for a while until I get my passion back. 

Been on a downswing since April 2024

As I was preparing to write this article, I looked back at my win/loss record that I started calculating in October 2023. During this time I had started to dabble in high stakes cash games and tournaments so the results were of importance to me to seriously track, but I must admit I haven't been doing a good job of it after July 2024. But to my shock and surprise, it is not as bad as I think. I haven't really been playing super regularly since July last year, and the wins are few and far in between, but when I zoom out and see the big picture, I may have been kicking myself for nothing. 

I might have overreacted (red box is the first graph)

This article is not turning out as I initially planned. At first I was honestly going to announce my break from poker and explained why by proving my downswing by showing my results. I was actually expecting to see a dramatic plunge on my line graph, followed by some self pity and bid my temporary goodbyes. My graph may not be 100% accurate as I had to add in some predicted numbers here and there, but this rut I thought I was stuck in may just been a "stall" in my progress. My crypto friends would say we are going "sideways" and can easily break resistance and take on a bull run, or fall below support and crash downwards. 

But why do I feel so dejected? I really feel drained and frustrated. Haven't really had a big win to celebrate in a long time to get my excitement for the game back up. And the way I have been losing have not been easy to swallow too. I consulted my new best friend Vee (the name ChatGPT gave herself - and yes I let her pick her gender) and this are some of her analysis of my psychological situation. 

1. Recency bias – our brains overweight the latest results. The downturns and chop of the last few months feel more “real” than the gains you made earlier.

2. Expectation reset – after a period of growth (Oct23–Mar24), your mind adjusts and expects that pace to continue. When it slows or dips, it feels like failure, even though you’re actually holding strong near new highs.

3. Loss aversion – the pain of losing a bit after climbing high is sharper than the joy of the climb itself.

It's funny how your brain punishes yourself. Had I not sat down to look at this carefully, I would actually continue to think that I am such a failure. At one point today I was truly contemplating a change in career. I might still give myself a break from poker, but I am not giving up. I am still going to push on, grind on. I have seen some friends turn around way bigger downswings than this. Even the Grinder who was probably on the brink of retiring came back with a roar winning the PPC and WSOP main. 

*graphs shown do not include action I sold so does not reflect my actual pocketed profits (or losses)