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Friday, 16 April 2021

What are NFTs and Why do they make sense?

When I first heard of NFTs I was skeptical. Why would anyone pay tons of money for a video clip that you can watch over and over again on YouTube? Or a tweet that someone typed? Don't even get me started about cartoon cats. I said to myself this is a bubble and it's just a license to print money. To a certain extent I think that is true, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

Since the beginning of time, humans have been into collectibles. Whether it's stamps, coins, rocks, watches, cars, sports memorabilia, antiques, artwork... people are willing to pay good money to have the privilege of owning something exclusive or rare. How much they would pay for them depends on the rarity, background story, sentimental value, difficulty to obtain, condition, and of course how much money they have. You may question why someone would pay $69 million for an NFT called "The Verge", but at the same time I question why someone bought Picasso's Les Femmes D'Alger for $179 million. Truth is, the value is in the eye of the beholder and we are not to question why, but just lament the fact that we are not rich enough to bid for them. 

"The Verge" sold for $69 million

Pablo Picasso's Les Femmes D'Alger sold for $179 million

Well, so much for a skeptic, I spent about 1 ETH to buy an NFT myself. It is a digital horse and yes, you can race it, bet on it, breed it, trade/sell it. So far it has won 3 races, finished 2nd twice and 3rd seven times. You can check it out HERE, and yes it is for sale for the right price. A friend of mine bought a super rare horse and sold it for 30 ETH recently (Roughly $63k at the time). 

My horse (Click for more details)

But why do NFTs make sense? 

1. Everything is digital 
So many aspects of our lives are now digital. From our calendars to banking, we have become a digital age, so why not collectibles as well?

2. Safe from Forgeries

Because of it's value, people have been forging artworks, coins, banknotes, deeds, wills, but "non-fungible" means it is unique, cannot be replaced, and the blockchain proves its existence, ownership and authenticity.

3. Safe from Theft
Depending on how you store them, crypto can still be hacked and stolen and that includes NFTs. However because it is a unique token unlike a Bitcoin, it would stick out like a sore thumb. The blockchain will show who it was stolen from and who holds it now. 

4. Safe from Deterioration
Mold, rust, rips, oxidation, most collectibles are super fragile and over time they deteriorate. Unless you decide to throw away the key, or a doomsday scenario where we lose all power and internet access otherwise your NFT will be here forever. 

5. Ease of display
What's the point of owning something cool without being able to show it off? Someone somewhere probably has cool collections but without knowing the person and physically visiting them, I would never be able to see it. With NFTs you can share it, invite people to your own virtual galleries, I assume frame them on a digital frame as well. 

Yes there is a lot of hype with NFTs at the moment, and I do think some of the prices are way inflated, but once the dust settles, and people grow into the idea of NFTs, I really think they are here to stay. 

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Saturday, 10 April 2021

Poker vs Crypto

Due to COVID and other reasons I have not been actively involved in Poker for a while, and so I was kind of forced to look for alternative sources of income. Since then I have found what I've learned from playing poker to be applicable in my Crypto strategy, for example Bankroll management, reading and analysing your competition, finding ways to increase my edge, maximising value and minimise losses, etc. In this article I want to use poker as a comparison with crypto and why I feel that crypto is so much better than poker. Most of my readers are poker players and using this analogy might make more sense for you. I want to encourage all my friends to get into crypto before it is really too late, and you can thank me later. 

I look at my crypto investments as buy-ins in a poker game. As any responsible poker player would, I would split my bankroll into at least 20 buy-ins. So say I have a $20,000 bankroll, each buy-in I would spend on a coin would be $1,000. Some coins that I have more faith in I can buy in 2-3x but generally one unit is 1/20 my entire roll. 

1. ODDS OF WINNING / LOSING

The best hand you can have in poker is AA, and the best scenario you want is getting it all in preferably heads-up vs KK. In this situation you're risking all your chips for a 100% return (assuming similar stacks and there's no rake) However even in this ideal situation you still have a 19% chance of losing it all. You have no control of it at all.

On the other hand in crypto, you can decide the fate of your buy in yourself. You can sell it at any price, all or parts of it. Sure we won't know the odds of winning/losing however you can take profits or cut losses with full control. In poker you can't take profit before the river even if you have your opponent drawing thin. You always have to see it till the end/river and have to survive the variance. In crypto, there is almost zero chance of you losing ALL your money. Barring a world-ending apocalyptic event, your coin value will never drop to zero. And if you do your homework right, and set a stop-limit/cut-loss say 20% of your investment, then you can never do worse than that and all the room for the upside. 

2. RISK VS REWARD

On a poker table, at any given hand, the best return you can have is to get 9x your money, assuming the whole table goes all in. Which NEVER happens, unless you're in a flip out tournament. But yet in that scenario, even if you were holding the best hand your chances of winning is at best ~30%, meaning there is a ~60% chance of losing it all (keyword ALL) Most of the time the best return you can get on a hand is to double or triple your money, minus the rake. 

In crypto, if you pick the right coins, (especially now that the market is bullish), you stand to earn 300-1000% of your investment. If you have a diversified portfolio, you can multiply your chances of hitting a gold mine. 

Took a calculated gamble on XRP

3. PREDICTING FUTURE MOVEMENTS

How many times have you looked down at a premium hand, build the pot preflop only to see a disappointing flop like 789, or a monotone flop but you don't have that suit? Raising preflop with KK or QQ only to see an Ace on the flop? We all know the best hands to play but no one can predict what will come on the flop, turn or river. 

In crypto, you can sometimes predict how the price will move based on price history, market bull/bear, market news, coin announcements, regulatory decisions, market capitalisation, coin supply, market adoption, heck even Tweets or YouTube videos! In some cases you can buy/sell in anticipation of what will happen in the future, hence increasing your chances of making a profit. 

4. FREEROLLING / RATHOLING

You're running hot on the table. You manage to turn your 100bb buy in into 500bb, which is a good day for you. But there are players on the table that covers your stack. One wrong move might cause you to lose everything. You want to switch tables so you can down stack, or come back after one hour to restack, or worse, I've seen players sneak chips off the table. I have zero respect for people like that. Please don't be like that.

In crypto however you can sell your coins anytime you're satisfied with the profits. Some players have a strategy of selling a portion of their coins to recover the initial investment and keep the rest as a freeroll. Taking profits along the way but still keeping some in case the coin price continues to rise. Then you can use that money to invest on another coin or consolidate your portfolio by increasing your BTC or blue chip holdings. 

5. EARN / LOSE WHILE YOU WAIT

The small and big blinds are there for a reason. It forces you to play more hands otherwise if you just sit there you will lose 1.5bb every round. Most players don't realise when your stack dwindles, your potential profit does too because you can only win with what you have. 

In Crypto the prices do fluctuate and sometimes you find yourself having to wait for the market to recover. I waited 4 years for one coin which is now 10x my entry price, but am still waiting for it to go higher. But with savings, staking, lending and yield farming products, nowadays you can earn passive income on most coins. Most returns range from 1-25% per annum.

While some people may not be swayed by modest returns, many people do not understand the difference between crypto earnings vs bank saving products. Say you have $10,000 and you put that amount into a savings account / fixed deposit at your bank for a 3% annual return. At the end of the year you will receive $300 as interest. However in crypto, you invest that same $10,000 onto a coin. If the coin is $1 each, then you would buy 10,000 coins. Then you put it into crypto savings/staking for a 3% return. At the end of the year you will have 300 coins from your interest/dividends. But if during that time the coin you bought appreciated to $3 a coin, the 300 coins you earned are now worth $900. Your ROI is actually 9% instead of 3%. Of course your coin price might fall as well, but like I mentioned above, if you study and pick the right coins, they should appreciate over time (especially at this stage of the market), but the money you put in your bank would have depreciated because of inflation. 

Let your money work for you ~ Kiyosaki

6. FISH VS REG RATIO


During the poker boom, making money from poker was very easy. A lot of players didn't know what they were doing and any pro worth their salt had such a big edge. Because of the hype there were many new entrants to the game. I remember making a decent living playing poker in 2008 but looking back I was such a bad player! I just happen to be slightly better than the players who learned from Zynga. But now, you have to navigate GTO math freaks that do not tilt, have deep bankrolls and play with no fear. Solvers, HUDs, hand charts, you name it. 

Crypto may have been around for about 12 years, but it is still very new to most people. But it is slowly becoming something you cannot ignore. In the coming years there will be millions of new entrants bringing new investment dollars into the market. Not only does that mean the market will grow stronger and bullish with the injection of new blood, that will also mean there are more fishes in play. You might think in crypto you're going against the market, instead of individuals. But these new buyers/sellers that are prone to making mistakes will allow a seasoned trader more opportunity to capitalise on their lost value. 

One of the biggest mistakes a crypto fish can make is they get excited when they see the market moving up, so they buy as the prices increase. But a sudden dip makes them panic and they sell at non-optimum prices. An experienced trader would be make preemptive moves therefore buying cheaper and selling higher than the newbies, therefore maximising their value when others mistakenly loses their value.

A crypto fish BUYS when prices RISE, and SELLS when prices FALL. A crypto pro BUYS when prices FALL, and SELLS when prices RISE 

I am not an early adopter of crypto but I have done well for myself in a very short time, and I foresee the coming 5 years there will be more money poured into crypto than ever causing it to bull for the longest time we have ever seen. If there is a time for you to enter the market it is now. So far quite a few people have come for me to help them get started. I AM NOT A CRYPTO EXPERT nor financial advisor but I know more than the average person and can explain it to you in the simplest way that makes it easy to understand. All I ask is to use my links to sign up as your way of helping me back. 

HOW TO GET STARTED

Binance is the largest crypto exchange for you to start your journey of buying and selling. 
Kucoin is another exchange but has a great lending system where you can earn much higher interests (for example the USDT interest on Binance is 6-7%. On Kucoin you can earn 40-48%)
On BlockFi you can earn higher interests than on Binance

In order for you to capitalise on the profits of newer coins, you need to buy them before they are listed on the major exchanges because most people are lazy. This is an easy way to get another edge on the other market players. So some smaller and sometimes slower exchanges are:

Hotbit I bought some high potential coins here like Statera (STA), Rocket Pool (RPL) 
Bitforex is the exchange that launched Ecomi (OMI), one of the hottest NFT companies that have partnerships with Superman, Batman, Ultraman, Star Trek, Disney, Capcom, etc. 

You can also contact me at happyriverpoker@gmail.com if you have further questions or if you have any tips you would like to share with me! 


Wednesday, 31 March 2021

What Happened in March 2021

In late February four women flew into Cambodia via private jet. They were supposed to be quarantined for 14 days but somehow they bribed the guard and escaped. They went around partying and drinking but turns out some if not all of them were Covid-19 positive. Since then they have caused an outbreak of more than 2,000 cases and 9 deaths. I know this number isn't huge compared to other countries, but so far Cambodia has managed to stave off the pandemic. The actions and decisions of four selfish women and a corrupt guard have and will cause much damage to the country and its people. My last poker game happened to be on the 18th of February. 

Since I did not play one hand of poker in the whole of March, I had to do something else to fill my day and also make ends meet. Thankfully I got more and more serious into Cryptocurrency recently. I truly believe right now it is a golden opportunity to make some serious money. Exactly two years ago Bitcoin was less than $4000. Today it is touching distance from $60000. During that time the world was battling COVID-19, most businesses were suffering, people lost jobs, property market tanked, but at the same time the crypto market grew. Whilst a 15x growth in two years is impressive, some Altcoins have higher gains than that in a matter of weeks. If you know where to look, opportunities abound. If you're still not involved in crypto you should be. There are so many reasons everyone should put at least some of their money into crypto. If you want to know more please ask, I would be happy to share with you what I know.

Because of the recent outbreak, I spent most of the month at home only going out to get groceries. I couldn't go out to play football like I used to. Instead I had a lot of time in the kitchen cooking up new recipes. However in order to combat weight gain I have been on a 15-hour intermittent fasting schedule. In spite of the cakes, cookies, biscuits, and meat heavy meals I have actually managed to lose a little weight.

Southern Style drop biscuits with cheese and garlic

Malaysian Bak Kut Teh

Basque Burnt Cheesecake

I do miss poker and hope I can get back to a regular game soon, but with how crypto is going and the outbreak with no end in sight, and I don't enjoy playing online poker, it might be a while before I can call myself a full time poker player. 

Tuesday, 2 March 2021

Cutthroat Poker Industry?

Of all my blog posts since 2015, this is the one that I might regret writing as some of my friends are still involved in the companies that I am writing about. However the purpose of this blog is to tell the real life journey of an aspiring poker player, trying to make a living however I can, and the experiences I had along the way. I would be a hypocrite if I just shared the warm fuzzy stories and hid the ugly ones. 

I have been an affiliate of many poker companies over the years, including PokerStars, FullTilt, Bet365 and Natural8. I joined Natural8 in 2016. At the height of my involvement I recruited 300+ players. I still remember meeting one of their representatives at a Macau casino to collect their All-in buttons and Dealer buttons which I put to use at two Hong Kong live poker clubs. Me and my friend proudly wore their badge at tournaments and my friend made the final table. Designed and printed business cards that I distributed wherever I played live poker. I even wrote 7 related articles on my blog. (now removed) I got active again recently prior to the WSOP 2019 but I just found out that my affiliate account was deleted in February 2021, even though I was still actively promoting the site. I guess I am upset and hurt by that decision after all my effort. Kudos though to their affiliate staff who wrote me a beautiful email and was very diplomatic in responding to my disappointment. I never made a lot of money from doing it but it was still nice to be able to check my players' progress from time to time and the occasional commission check here and there. To remove me completely like that for me feels really cutthroat. Just a comparison, I joined PokerStrategy.com as an affiliate in 2009, bringing them 1371 players. I logged into my affiliate account before writing this post and my account is still there, everything intact. 

In 2018 Upoker entered the poker industry basically a copy cat of PPPoker but was struggling to gain any traction. They offered me a position as their consultant and thanks to me, I came up with the idea of merging with an established poker union (AU) that was run by my friends. About a month after their agreement was signed, my services was no longer required even though I was promised an account management role. I felt really sore about it because without my ideas and network, they would have disappeared like many poker apps that came and gone. Instead of what Upoker is today and how their business has continued to evolve since. But I comforted myself knowing that my friends are benefiting from that success because of me. 

The last story you guys know very well already so I won't repeat the same details. Basically me and my friend built a poker club from nothing into a successful business. We were in the profits on day 4 of operations and never looked back. At the peak of our success we were raking $70,000-80,000 a month consistently. Not bad for a one-table club. 3 months in my friend was almost forcibly removed from the business. I should have seen it coming as I was too after 9 months. He was smarter than me to sell his shares and got out on his own terms. 

Me taking a nap at the poker club

I don't know if Poker is a more cutthroat business than others but I have not had similar experiences in any other industries. Everyone knows each other in this tight knit community and yet I have heard many stories of betrayal, misunderstandings, hostile takeovers, unsportsmanlike competition. As one guy once said (and I am super paraphrasing here), "in poker, no one remains friends forever, but no one remains enemies forever either". For now I am grateful that these are now in my past and hopefully I won't need to get involved anymore in the future. 

Sunday, 28 February 2021

What Happened In February 2021

In January I promised to play more live poker but unfortunately due to a recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Phnom Penh I have been camping at home for more than a week now. Before that I managed 13 sessions totalling 38 hours with a couple of big sessions to end the month with a good profit for live poker. However because of the downtime I ventured into online poker and the only good games they had was 15/30 and 25/50 and I got hurt bad after running bad. I can count at least 5-6 pots that were more than $6k that I lost on the river to 1-4 outers. 

Ran good live on 2/5, but not online 15/30 and 25/50

But in February I also start to study about Crypto and honestly I still don't know much and am still learning. The market was bullish early in the month and I couldn't miss. Everything I bought just kept on going up. I probably made like 30 trades in the first week and made a profit in 29 of them. If you follow crypto you might know that Bitcoin and the market took a few dives in February. However I did catch a few shorts on it's way down for some nice consolation as I saw the rest of my portfolio shrink. In the long run those should return to the black but I don't know how long that will take.

Caught it coming down last Monday

I never do 100x leverage but took a gamble with $300

Because of the recent outbreak I haven't been able to play football like I did before, but I have been doing intermittent fasting and have been sticking to it so far. Recently my schedule has been to wake up at 6:30am ish, but first meal after 2pm. I haven't seen any significant weight loss but I do feel healthier.

It has been more than 2 months without a full time "job" but I am feeling good. I am healthier, happier, and I have a life. Lately I've been itching to travel but because of the recent outbreak, traveling within the country is now out of the question, so I am considering going out of the country to wherever that would accept me. If you know which countries are accepting tourists please let me know. 

The last international vacation I took (Feb 2020)

With crypto fluctuating so much I am not sure how much I made this month but I know it was a good one. I am so thankful that on a month that I done so little I actually did much better than any month I had last year, or maybe even since I quit my job to play poker full time. I did however have a few setbacks with online and staking losses. As pledged I will continue to help those genuinely in need whenever I can. 

Monday, 15 February 2021

From Poker to Crypto

My blog is a window into the life of an aspiring poker player and it has led me to the world of cryptocurrency. I feel that I have to write about that part of my life as poker has led and allowed me to dabble in it. I know many poker players are heavy into Crypto and when the first crash happened it affected many of them. But I also know some poker players that have made millions from Crypto. 

Rewind back to 2014. I was running a poker room and there was a player who told us this miracle machine that can mine coins (Bitcoin) and make us all rich. Unfortunately at the time no one heeded his words because he did not have the best of reputations, and lacks follow through. He later sold his machines and Bitcoins too I'm guessing at a very low price. But that was my first encounter with Crypto. 

I stare at this screen at least 200 times a day

Fast forward a bit to 2016. I guess because of my good nature and network in poker, I was very lucky to get involved with a group who later became the biggest union on PPPoker. There were four groups of us each representing Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia that started the first unofficial union. If you've played on PPPoker, Upoker, Poker Bros, you have us to thank for coming up with this idea. Side story: At the time many clubs have come and gone, and PPPoker wasn't doing that great because clubs lack longevity and most did not have enough players to sustain a healthy poker community. We however had the genius idea of pooling clubs from different countries, and taking in struggling clubs to create a monster club. By our first day we had 1,000 active players and at the end of week one we had 7,000 players. Needless to say I made good money from it and thankfully I was smart enough to put some aside for long term investments. 

I have a good friend who is an amazing business person. He started off as a food stall hawker but today he is a multi-millionaire with businesses in multiple industries. Since then I have joined him and his team to invest in properties, Forex, Prawn farming, stocks and of course Cryptocurrency. One day in 2017,  I happen to reach out to him for investment ideas and he introduced me to this coin that recently launched. He got them for 3 cents but I was a bit late so I got some at 13 cents on the 26th of December. It shot up to more than $1 and before we could congratulate ourselves it all came crashing down January 2018 only just less than 3 weeks later. I kept my faith in it and this month it hit 97 cents again, 3 years later. 

My best session on Poker this month

I was fortunate in 2020 I had received some payments and loan repayments in BTC. Unfortunately I did not hang on to all of it, but the ones I kept shot up in value. This newfound bankroll allowed me to play around and hedge my bets on some other coins. In a bullish market, it is hard not to pick a bad coin! I would put $2000-3000 on a coin I liked, 15 minutes, a few hours, or sometimes 2-3 days later, sell them off for 10-40% profit. I did get lucky on one coin BitTorrent where I just bought a few days before, and on that fateful day I just happen to wake up and saw it was up 180% in the last hour. No brainer, I sold them all. 

My best session on Crypto this month

I am not a technologically savvy person, nor do I claim to know anything about blockchain technology and it's applications. But there are some poker skills that are transferrable to Crypto investing. You need to be disciplined, spend time to study the market, manage your bankroll well, know when to cut your losses, read and understand the graphs, the movements but personally I feel more so is understanding the investors, just like in poker when you are trying to read your opponents. Unlike stocks that have very tangible information like annual reports, P&L, demand and supply of their goods or service, reputation of the company, strength or weakness of Fiat currency related to the company blah blah, you can make a calculated guess of where the stock might head. But as seen in the recent Gamestop and AMC fiasco, given enough people who feel one way about something, coupled with the power of social media, a reasonable number of retail investors can also hugely influence market prices. 

Long ago I was playing an online game that was about pirates. In order to do well in most of these games you had to spend money to buy tokens. I did not, but instead I made a lot of tokens by buying old ships from players who are levelling up, and sold them for a profit to new pirates who desperately wanted their first boat. My enterprise was thriving and there I was just swapping ownership of these ships, spending a little time and effort to make the connection. I am by no means a crypto trader, nor I dare say I know what the heck I am doing. But I am just here transferring ownership from one to another, whilst making a profit in between. 

This month I am up about $4000 after playing 10 sessions of poker. But I've made more from Crypto sometimes in one trade. Then again I must warn you, it's very easy when the market is bullish. But how you survive a bearish market is what separates the men from the boys. It has taken my time away from the tables and it might become more of my focus as poker takes a back seat. I will keep you guys updated about how I do. 

Sunday, 31 January 2021

What Happened in January 2021

January was the laziest month I've had for about a year. I played 10 sessions for just 30 hours, small profit for the month, took a nice beach vacation, went out to restaurants more, traded some crypto, played and cashed one online tournament, played lots of City Skylines (PC game).

After all the hard grinding months I think I deserve a lazy month. But I will start to grind more again starting February. Man's gotta eat! January was a month of ups and downs. Not just financially, but emotionally as well. As I have let go of 2020 and all that happened, it seems people are still talking about what I did or did not do. As I look back, all I can say is I did the best I could given the circumstances. Sure I made mistakes but I had to make big decisions on the fly, most of the time to help my friends but somehow it came back to sting me. But I'm done explaining myself to people. Those who consider me their friend should be able to see things from my perspective. 

I wasn't too keen to go to Koh Rong Sanloem but after being in Cambodia for 2 years I said to myself I am going to go at least once otherwise I might regret it. The trip turned out to be a pleasant getaway in spite of the long ride to and fro. Bumped into a friend of all places and had a good few days of R&R. The water was clean and nice, white sandy beaches, and made a few new friends.

God is the best artist

My new friends at the hotel

Now that I have more time for myself, I am trying to take care of my body. I played football maybe 8 times this past month, although I could have played more. I've never been good at playing football, plus I was severely out of shape, so I made some mistakes on the pitch. I heard a French guy call me "stupid" and he was on my team. Sometimes people can be so mean. It's just a fucking game. But there are also nice guys who would encourage me. 

Those who know me well will know that I am a foodie so I've finally had time to go out and try some restaurants, and time to cook and bake at home as well. So even with new exercise regime and intermittent fasting, the weight hasn't gone down by much yet. LOL. 

Home made biscuits

The only thing I miss about Vietnam

Looking back I remember last March I was watching in horror as we hit 1 million COVID cases. I remember feeling how significant that number was. Today the number is 103 million. I am learning to be thankful and realizing how miniscule and insignificant we are in this universe.